28 April 2011

Who said what now?

I have a number of articles I'd like to comment on today, but due to time constraints I'll have to stick to the briefest one, for the moment:

Economists did see the bubble coming

Martha Starr analyzes statements in 24 California newspapers from 2002 to 2007. From 1998 to 2005, the state's house prices increased by more than 10% each year. This prompted the newspaper to run 379 stories with 688 statements by economists on house prices. Academics were clearly warning that house prices were not sustainable. Economists employed in the real-industry, however, were resolutely optimistic. What emerges is a mixed message that gave no guidance to the public, which was even reassured by positive messages from the Federal Reserve.
Two lessons there.  One, probably obvious to anyone reading this, is to never trust anyone who is talking his book (the trick is figuring out which book is his).  And the second is, if any particular people or schools of economics (I'm looking at you, Austrians) tell you that they were uniquely sounding the warning while no one else knew it was coming, they're talking their book.

1 comment:

Jon said...

The Austrians, in the aftermath of the crash, remind me of nothing more than Chicken Little the day the sky actually fell.